It’s Cold Again; I’ll Post Again

THE FORMULAE ARE TOUGH BUT THE COMPUTER IS EASY

minus-42.JPG

My little sidebar widget is finding numbers that are outside of my normal experience. I enjoy the numbers but it sure is cold outside. Exercise of the lungs accompanies exercise of the muscles.

This post is in response to the queries I encountered at the gathering in my crowded little living space last Saturday night. The NPS finds me just a bit too strident, some others think that I lack political tact – both are consensus opinions of those that don’t appreciate data and the science behind it.

They ask for the data and then ignore it. They have an agenda and need justification and rationalization. They pay for & get data, facts, models and projections. Ask and ye shall recieve – No apologies.

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Here are a few of the necessary formulae for finding out just how polluted Yellowstone National Park really is. References follow. I’d rather be fishing.

formula-370-x-53.jpgThe roadway dispersion model. This is the theory: an infinite straight line with the height of the observer accounted for in the observation. The observer can move up to encounter different wind vectors. This was the elegant model developed by CalTrans in response to the EPA. It accounts for a lot of the roadway design that you see in California.

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This is the standard “Complete Equation For Gaussian Dispersion Modeling Of Continuous, Buoyant Air Pollution Plumes”:

. formula.JPG

where:
f = crosswind dispersion parameter
g = vertical dispersion parameter =
g1 = vertical dispersion with no reflections
g2 = vertical dispersion for reflection from the ground
g3 = vertical dispersion for reflection from an inversion aloft
C = concentration of emissions, in g/m³, at any receptor located:
x meters downwind from the emission source point
y meters crosswind from the emission plume centerline
z meters above ground level
Q = source pollutant emission rate, in g/s
u = horizontal wind velocity along the plume centerline, m/s
H = height of emission plume centerline above ground level, in m
σz = vertical standard deviation of the emission distribution, in m
σy = horizontal standard deviation of the emission distribution, in m
L = height from ground level to bottom of the inversion aloft, in m
exp = the exponential function

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The winter situation is modified by temperature and density factors that must be accounted for by the model. The best adjustments come from the study performed by Sonoma Technology in Petaluma, California.

Because different models are stipulated for various purposes, a suite of results is generated for the study. The easiest way to explore the models is to go to the compiled models page.

And the The Oklahoma Dispersion Model

Wikipedia does a surprisingly good job of introducing people to Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling. The page has an excellent assortment of links.

It’s necessary to appreciate that point-instant modeling is a far cry from predictive reality in the face of the rapid changes taking place in our environment. The most surprising thing about the Government is that different agencies seem to fear talking to each other. Much of what the NPS is paying for could have been extrapolated from existing data.

Try the EPA Page on climate change, and look at the box about climate change – Past, Recent, Future.

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pretz.jpgOnce we got done exploring ignorance the gathering went along swimmingly. Soft pretzels and a mild horseradish-mustard dip sharpened the taste buds for the dinner. The several white wines that we consumed before we sat down were absolutely unremarkable.

roast-lol.jpgDinner was catered by the one decent restaurant in town and consisted of: roast leg of lamb, (with red currant dressing, roasted carrots, potatoes, squash, & NO mint,) white Lima beans, fried eggplant, pineapple upside down cake – in lieu of salad, and several kinds of fresh baked rolls and bread.

chianti.jpgThere were two wines to choose from. A Chianti – Villa Antinori Toscana Tuscany, and a Chardonnay – Rodney Strong, Chalk Hill from the Russian River. The Chardonnay tasted like sour Granny Smith Apples and was way too green. Most of the guests chose it.

I liked the Chianti. It was a bit soft and lacked too much pepper, (which I normally like but this was good with the lamb.) There was a definite berry taste and a mellow finish. It asked for more and I obliged.

Desert was vanilla ice cream, Galliano, and coffee from the local coffee grinder. Everyone was gracious and left by midnight. It was only 28 below zero and they wanted to get home before it got cold.

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As if the cold temperatures in West Yellowstone weren’t enough to bring cogitation about Global Warming, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is busy showing us the other kind of alterations to expect in our weather disruptions.

” Last week I saw robins and bluebirds in upstate New York where they don’t usually arrive before April. Crocuses and daffodils were in bloom everywhere. A friend ate asparagus he harvested in the normally frozen Catskills in the first week of January. Turtles in downstate New York, like bears in Scandinavia, forgot to hibernate for the first time in human history.”

. . . Read More

 

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