With the Paris report out, I see that the bloggers are jumping on the issue for a few words and a quick post. So be it; I’ll play.
I tried Google for the text but it’s not yet available, (the fourth assessment report is due out in April.) It should be available on the IPCC site soon. The executive summary is scary enough. Here’s the first day’s search if you want the instant reaction: Paris Climate Report Text, United Nations Climate Report Text, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The consensus seems to be:
- It’s real and we caused most of it,
- The last time the world was this warm for an extended period was 125,000 years ago,
- The current report is a conservative statement – it could be worse,
- If we stopped all human contributions to Global Warming today, it would have no immediate effect,
- The IPCC report predicts a “best estimate” that temperatures would rise by between 1.8 and 4.0 Celsius (3.2 and 7.8 Fahrenheit) in the 21st century, within a likely range from 1.1 to 6.4 Celsius,
- If the ice cap in the North and the ice sheet in the South continue to melt – all bets on forecasting change must be reconsidered,
- An early consequence for humanity will be changed rainfall patterns, leading to heightened water stress, prolonged droughts and floods,
- Among other potential threats, depending on the future pollution level, are higher sea levels and more frequent violent storms.
The coverage of the report is everywhere. I’ve read and selected the following:
- Wrangling Over Climate Change In Paris – SA,
- Humans Caused Global Warming – SA,
- Warming Man-Made – Reuters,
- Climate Calamity – extensive report from Sydney Morning Herald,
- IPCC Fourth Assessment SPM – from Real Climate, excellent comments,
- Hidden Bombshell in IPCC Fourth Assessment – From Grist, beware of tundric timebombs.
What will happen to our fish? See Midcurrent for the note about George Black, and Mongabay for the interview. A brief general statement about all National Parks is in National Parks Traveler. Good stuff at Ralph Maughan’s Wildlife News – be sure to read the comments.
The questions become:
- So what?
- What’s it mean for me?
- What should we do about it?
I’m going to run now. It snowed a bit last night and I’ll be expending some energy. Is this analogous to the ‘Butterfly Effect?’