A New 100 Year Forecast

A CHANGE IN PARADIGM

tropic.jpgThe IPCC report recently released in X-Summary has produced an interesting spin-off. There may be climate changes that produce weather that humans have not seen before. Perhaps as much as 39% of the earth will have climate that we have no familiarity with.

And, It’s going to come in the tropical and subtropical portions of the world as we know it. This is a call for some serious consideration.

As pointed out at ScientificAmerican.com:

. . . ecologists John Williams of the University of Wisconsin–Madison, and Stephen Jackson of the University of Wyoming, along with U.W. Madison climatologist John Kutzbach compared global climate projections published last month by the fourth IPCC with current regional climates, looking specifically at average summer and winter temperatures and precipitation. They considered scenarios of either unchecked greenhouse gas emissions or a global reduction in the rate of emissions growth.
. . . Jackson says that prior studies have concentrated on ecological changes closer to the poles, but the tropical changes might be more dramatic. “If [the climate of] Memphis moves to Chicago, we have a Memphis there to say what Chicago will look like,” he says. “For an area where we don’t have a modern analogue, there’s really nothing to look at to say, this is what the environment will look like.”

So, it looks like there will be some interesting times ahead – even if we remove 100% of the anthropogenic component of global warming tomorrow. [If that happened the direction and magnitude of the current changes would continue for at least a century and probably more!]

One interesting aspect of the changes to come is the way we plan our social adaptive strategies. Everything from snowmobiles in Yellowstone to cropland for agriculture. And this completely side steps the concerns over the oceans, not to mention energy supply and distribution — to what new places?

For instance, the current debate over snowmobiles in Yellowstone is about to become irrelevant. What if there was not enough snow to support sleds and tanks? What would the planners come up with? Would they reinvent the wheel? Of course!

Or, what about the continued population growth in the United States of America? With each person requiring about 12 acres to be removed from the ‘natural’ setting, (for the necessary food production,) it will be interesting to see where these acres come from. Take a peek at The American Chronicle series, The Next 100 Million Americans.

And as the seas warm, and activate the supposedly dormant pollution that we have spewed into them what will the fishing industry do? Who will figure out this problem? Look at the IPS article about the disappearance of sharks and the collapse of the ocean’s food web.

dans-hans.jpgThen too, climate and weather are so tightly married in the popular mindset that maybe we won’t have any organized response. Perhaps we’ll just continue to ‘muddle along’ and hope.

Real Estate developers should look at the current conflict between Canada & Denmark. What’s that? They are peace lovers.

Well now, Hans Island, (go ahead and Google this for a bit of insight,) is smack in the middle of new arctic shipping routes and is currently uninhabited.

jams-hans.jpgIf it were not so serious it would be laughable. There is a rush by all manner of groups to claim the island. Will there be a war over this Frisbee – shaped island? Hells’ bells guys, the icebergs are bigger than the island.

From a personal point of view, I wonder about the following things: Where will the best California Cabernet come from? Where will the best Burgundy come form – certainly not Burgundy. Will the Firehole River become a world famous Blue Gill fishery? Will I have to go to Barrow, Alaska to catch a Brook Trout? Will ballistics change with the different densities of the atmosphere and will my current rifles still shoot their current loads? How long will it take to hard-boil an egg at this elevation? Will the rich of Malibu, California build sea walls? Where will the new Wall Street be? I, have many more, but you get the idea. The trivial and the not-so-trivial will be changing in the very near future.

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Interesting Reading

Antarctic Melting May Be Speeding Up, Scientists Say,
Global Warming and New Technology Heat Up Race for Riches in Melting Arctic
As Sharks Vanish, Chaotic New Order Emerges
The Ladonia Commonwealth
It’s Mine! No, Mine!
Canada island visit angers Danes
Man bites shark

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