It’s Cold Again; I’ll Post Again

THE FORMULAE ARE TOUGH BUT THE COMPUTER IS EASY

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My little sidebar widget is finding numbers that are outside of my normal experience. I enjoy the numbers but it sure is cold outside. Exercise of the lungs accompanies exercise of the muscles.

This post is in response to the queries I encountered at the gathering in my crowded little living space last Saturday night. The NPS finds me just a bit too strident, some others think that I lack political tact – both are consensus opinions of those that don’t appreciate data and the science behind it.

They ask for the data and then ignore it. They have an agenda and need justification and rationalization. They pay for & get data, facts, models and projections. Ask and ye shall recieve – No apologies.

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Here are a few of the necessary formulae for finding out just how polluted Yellowstone National Park really is. References follow. I’d rather be fishing.

formula-370-x-53.jpgThe roadway dispersion model. This is the theory: an infinite straight line with the height of the observer accounted for in the observation. The observer can move up to encounter different wind vectors. This was the elegant model developed by CalTrans in response to the EPA. It accounts for a lot of the roadway design that you see in California.

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This is the standard “Complete Equation For Gaussian Dispersion Modeling Of Continuous, Buoyant Air Pollution Plumes”:

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where:
f = crosswind dispersion parameter
g = vertical dispersion parameter =
g1 = vertical dispersion with no reflections
g2 = vertical dispersion for reflection from the ground
g3 = vertical dispersion for reflection from an inversion aloft
C = concentration of emissions, in g/m³, at any receptor located:
x meters downwind from the emission source point
y meters crosswind from the emission plume centerline
z meters above ground level
Q = source pollutant emission rate, in g/s
u = horizontal wind velocity along the plume centerline, m/s
H = height of emission plume centerline above ground level, in m
σz = vertical standard deviation of the emission distribution, in m
σy = horizontal standard deviation of the emission distribution, in m
L = height from ground level to bottom of the inversion aloft, in m
exp = the exponential function

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The winter situation is modified by temperature and density factors that must be accounted for by the model. The best adjustments come from the study performed by Sonoma Technology in Petaluma, California.

Because different models are stipulated for various purposes, a suite of results is generated for the study. The easiest way to explore the models is to go to the compiled models page.

And the The Oklahoma Dispersion Model

Wikipedia does a surprisingly good job of introducing people to Atmospheric Dispersion Modeling. The page has an excellent assortment of links.

It’s necessary to appreciate that point-instant modeling is a far cry from predictive reality in the face of the rapid changes taking place in our environment. The most surprising thing about the Government is that different agencies seem to fear talking to each other. Much of what the NPS is paying for could have been extrapolated from existing data.

Try the EPA Page on climate change, and look at the box about climate change – Past, Recent, Future.

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pretz.jpgOnce we got done exploring ignorance the gathering went along swimmingly. Soft pretzels and a mild horseradish-mustard dip sharpened the taste buds for the dinner. The several white wines that we consumed before we sat down were absolutely unremarkable.

roast-lol.jpgDinner was catered by the one decent restaurant in town and consisted of: roast leg of lamb, (with red currant dressing, roasted carrots, potatoes, squash, & NO mint,) white Lima beans, fried eggplant, pineapple upside down cake – in lieu of salad, and several kinds of fresh baked rolls and bread.

chianti.jpgThere were two wines to choose from. A Chianti – Villa Antinori Toscana Tuscany, and a Chardonnay – Rodney Strong, Chalk Hill from the Russian River. The Chardonnay tasted like sour Granny Smith Apples and was way too green. Most of the guests chose it.

I liked the Chianti. It was a bit soft and lacked too much pepper, (which I normally like but this was good with the lamb.) There was a definite berry taste and a mellow finish. It asked for more and I obliged.

Desert was vanilla ice cream, Galliano, and coffee from the local coffee grinder. Everyone was gracious and left by midnight. It was only 28 below zero and they wanted to get home before it got cold.

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As if the cold temperatures in West Yellowstone weren’t enough to bring cogitation about Global Warming, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is busy showing us the other kind of alterations to expect in our weather disruptions.

” Last week I saw robins and bluebirds in upstate New York where they don’t usually arrive before April. Crocuses and daffodils were in bloom everywhere. A friend ate asparagus he harvested in the normally frozen Catskills in the first week of January. Turtles in downstate New York, like bears in Scandinavia, forgot to hibernate for the first time in human history.”

. . . Read More

 

Happy 15,000

NOT BAD FOR FOUR MONTHS

15000.jpgSometime today, (or maybe tomorrow,) this site will see visitor number 15,000. Thank you, and thanks to the 14,999 before you. And special thanks to Mark & Matt for fixing my HTML goofs. The WordPress support team is fantastic.

This little blog has done wonders for my ego, and it’s served it’s purpose with the pages and data sheets for the staff.

The meat of this site is not in the posts, and the statistics show it. Search terms for the Target Shooting section outnumber everything; followed by Yellowstone, Snowmobiles, and Fly Fishing – in that order. Speaking of which there are a couple of new pages up that are not in the last site update.

aq-gate.jpgFour pages are in the Yellowstone Section: Competing Government Perspectives, Yellowstone’s Current Trout Species, Exotic Plant Species In Yellowstone, Invasive Species, and one is in the Target Shooting Section221 Remington Fireball.

Well, it’s still cold and I’ve got to check the boxes. I’m working on a post for general consumption about the theory and science behind particulate dispersion. It’s not just what you measure; but how you measure – and the conditions the measurements were taken in. Sounds simple – maybe it is.

skull_and_crossbones-344-x-341.jpgThen, of course there’s the formaldehyde issue. The increase in snow coaches – THAT’S RIGHT SNOW COACHES – not snowmobiles, will increase levels of poisonous gasses. Air quality depends on many things and the unseen is as important as the seen. Watch the testosterone bloggers jump on this one.

This is going to be a busy week. The first approximations are due, the trip to Satan’s Nostrils is coming up, and I’ve got to get ready for Boise. There is one more gathering and a staff meeting. The computers better hold up. Time to run over to the boxes – cold or not.

The Grind

Here’s An Update

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The map for monitoring the West Entrance, Yellowstone National Park, air quality has its own page now, (click on the map to visit site.) The dots are a bit close together for easy “clicking” & we may move them. Approach the left dot from the left, and the right dot from the right, and you can probably get both pages. CURRENT OZONE & WEATHER DATACURRENT OZONE POLLUTANT & WEATHER DATA.

an-air-box.jpgThese are now EPA listed sites. The site and data numbers are on the pages and you can use them for references. The boxes are working very well with the new boards and the telemetry is just about real time with the new clocks and chips. This should allow for staggered entrances for buses, diesel automobiles, snow coaches , and snowmobiles.

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Got to fish yesterday afternoon. The snow was like a mist of rain: very small flakes, about the size of a pin point and just everywhere. There were a few Baetis in the air but no rising fish. I took a smallish rainbow on a size 8 soft hackle. The little fish looked like it was growing a moustache. I also had a big fish on the line, it jumped twice, ran far, jumped again and spit out the hook, I’d guess it might have gone a bit over 19″ but that’s just a guess.

Winter is making a point. The weather is heavy and the quick breezes are not biting, but they are brisk. I’m waiting for the first real snow to stick. Then we’ll calibrate and watch the results. Siting of sensors is still touchy. May need a whole new location for box two – we’ll see.

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